Dubai Economy to Grow at 4.5% in 2026

Dubai’s economy is set to maintain its robust momentum into the new year. 

A new report by leading U.A.E. bank Emirates NBD projects the emirate’s economy to grow at 4.5% in 2026, underscoring the emirate’s resilience and its ability to outperform global economic trends. This is supported by strong activity across both the private and public sectors, rising tourism, infrastructure investment and sustained population growth. 

In its latest economic outlook, Emirates NBD noted that Dubai’s economy is expected to expand at the same pace in 2026 as it did in 2025. This comfortably exceeds the anticipated global GDP growth average of 3.1%, the paltry 1.6% of advanced economies and also the 4% of emerging markets, highlighting Dubai’s strength. 

Dubai’s growth trajectory over the past several years reflects a steady recovery from the pandemic-induced contraction of 11.7% in 2020. Growth rebounded to 5.7% in 2021 and remained positive thereafter at 4.6% in 2022, 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024. According to Emirates NBD, the economy expanded by an estimated 4.4% in the first half of 2025, reinforcing confidence in the outlook for 2026. 

A key driver of this expansion is Dubai’s rapid population growth, driven by various factors ranging from the über-popular Golden Visa programme to no personal income tax. The emirate’s population surpassed 4 million in 2025, marking a 5.4% YoY increase, with long-term projections targeting 5.8 million residents by 2040. This demographic expansion continues to fuel demand for housing, construction, education, healthcare and utilities. Despite rising property prices since the pandemic, inflation has remained contained, with headline consumer price inflation forecast at 2.5% in 2026, slightly below the 2025 average of 2.8%. 

Tourism remains an ever-present contributor to the city’s growth story. Visitor numbers rose by approximately 5% in 2025, reaching 15.7 million between January and October, with a further upswing expected in 2026. Improved air connectivity, a more stable regional environment, and an expanding calendar of cultural and business events are set to support the sector. New hotel and restaurant openings, along with the government’s new Dubai Hotel Incentive Scheme, are encouraging additional investment in hospitality. 

Meanwhile, Dubai’s real estate market continues to scale new heights. With reports indicating that total transactions have already surpassed AED 624 billion in value this year, 2025 is set to be the real estate market’s most successful year ever. Combined with expectations of lower interest rates, an improved financial landscape and reduced global trade uncertainty, these factors position Dubai for another year of vigorous and diversified economic growth in 2026.